江苏省科技期刊可视化阅读平台

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江苏科技信息 ›› 2019, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (4): 69-72.doi: 10.1004-7530/2019-36-4-69

• 科学与社会 • 上一篇    下一篇

来安县气候多尺度时间变化特征及其对气候生产力的影响

王锋1,荀静2,王成1,徐建1,熊世为2,*   

  1. 1. 来安县气象局,安徽 来安 239200
    2. 滁州市气象局,安徽 滁州 239000
  • 出版日期:2019-02-10 发布日期:2019-07-09
  • 通讯作者: 熊世为
  • 作者简介:王锋（1993— ）,男,安徽滁州人,助理工程师,学士;研究方向：县级综合气象业务。

Multi-scale temporal variation characteristics of climate in Lai’an county and its impact on climate productivity

Feng Wang1,Jing Xun2,Cheng Wang1,Jian Xu1,Shiwei Xiong2,*   

  1. 1. Lai’an County Meteorological Bureau, Lai’an 239200, China;
    2. Chuzhou Meteorological Bureau, Chuzhou 239000, China
  • Online:2019-02-10 Published:2019-07-09
  • Contact: Shiwei Xiong

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摘要：

文章利用来安县国家气象站1961—2015年温度和降水资料,采用Thornthwaite Memorial模型计算气候生产力,分析来安县近55年温度和降水气候因子的时空变化特征,研究气候变化对来安气候生产力的影响,得出结论：近55年来安升温趋势显著,升温幅度0.23 ℃/10a,此趋势是一突变现象,具体突变点是2001年。降水量呈波动上升趋势,波动幅度大,最大波动幅度高达1 230 mm。年平均气温和降水量在年际尺度上周期振荡以准4~8a为主,年代际尺度上周期信号以准16a为主;近55年来安气候生产力上升趋势显著,上升幅度每10年20 kg·km -2,此上升趋势是一突变现象,具体突变点是1995年。气候生产力在年际尺度上周期振荡以准8a左右为主,年代际尺度上周期信号以准16a为主;气候生产力同时受气温、降水影响,气候变化对气候生产力的提高有利,但只在水分充足条件下,其提高幅度才更大,未来“暖湿型”变化趋势使来安气候生产力的上升空间在10%左右。

关键词: 气候变化, 气候生产力, Thornthwaite Memorial模型

Abstract:

Using the temperature and precipitation data of the National Weather Station of Lai’an county from 1961 to 2015, the Thornthwaite Memorial model was used to calculate the climate productivity, and the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the temperature and precipitation climatic factors in the past 55 years were analyzed to study the climate change. The impact is: in the past 55 years, the heating trend is significant, the temperature rise is 0.23℃/10a, this trend is a mutation phenomenon, the specific mutation point is 2001. The precipitation is fluctuating and rising, and the fluctuation range is large. The maximum fluctuation range is as high as 1 230 mm. The annual average temperature and precipitation on the interannual scale are mainly quasi 4~8a, and the periodic signals on the interdecadal scale are mainly quasi 16a. In the past 55 years, the increase in climate productivity is significant, with an increase of 20 kg·km -2 per 10 years, this uptrend is a mutation phenomenon, the specific mutation point is 1995. At the interannual scale, the climate productivity is dominated by quasi-8a. On the interdecadal scale, the periodic signal is dominated by quasi 16a; climate productivity is affected by temperature and precipitation, and climate change is beneficial to the improvement of climate productivity, but only in water. Under sufficient conditions, the increase will be even greater. In the future, the “warm and wet” trend will increase the climate productivity of Lai'an by about 10%.

Key words: climate change, climate productivity, Thornthwaite Memorial model

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