江苏省科技期刊可视化阅读平台

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江苏科技信息 ›› 2016, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (20): 59-60.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-7530.2016.20.003

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

美国技术预见的发展综述

姚缘, 傅长军   

  1. 江苏科学技术情报研究所,江苏南京,210042;南京森林警察学院,江苏南京,210000
  • 出版日期:2016-07-15 发布日期:2016-07-15
  • 基金资助:
    南京森林警察学院中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目%项目名称职业流动与农民工市民化机理与实证基于江苏省的调查研究%项目编号RWYB201604。

Review of American Technology Foresight

Yao Yuan, Fu Changjun   

  • Online:2016-07-15 Published:2016-07-15

摘要： “技术预见”始于20世纪90年代的欧洲，随后许多国家借此新的政策工具来处理科学、技术和创新系统的问题。“技术预见”大规模的运用使人作为知识来源的影响减小，而这种方法被更广泛地用于预测某一技术未来的发展。“十三五”期间江苏省制定了重点发展领域，各领域今后的发展方向至关重要，而通过技术预见可以帮助探索其发展重点。文章通过对美国技术预见研究的发展综述，帮助研究者系统地了解技术预见发展的沿革，更好地将技术预见方法运用于制定各自领域的技术发展规划过程中。

关键词: 创新政策, 创新研究, 技术预测

Abstract: The term “foresight” has long been used to describe readiness to deal with long-term issues. This term“technology foresight”took off in the 1990s in Europe, and then other countries sought new policy tools to deal with problems in their science, technology and innovation systems. Large-scale exercises drew in numerous stakeholders as sources of knowledge and influence, and the prominence of these exercises led to “foresight”being used much more widely to describe futures activities of many kinds. Using foresight can help to explore important development areas in Jiangsu. This article reviews on the development of American technology foresight, aiming to help researchers foresee the technology evolution system, and apply the foresight method to formulate technical development planning.